Home price growth forecast cut to 1.2%

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1. Texas' largest MLS launches broker rewards

North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) has launched NTREIS Rewards, a new program that will distribute a self-funded seven-figure payout to qualifying brokers. The initiative returns a portion of MLS-generated revenue to brokers based on the value of the listings they contribute.

The first payouts are based on 2025 listing activity, including the number of listings submitted, data quality, and listings that successfully closed. Only licensed broker participants qualify, individual agents are not eligible.

To receive a payout, brokers needed to submit at least 10 listings in 2025 and qualify for a minimum payment of $175. NTREIS said future reward cycles will also include MLS compliance once it assumes full compliance oversight at the end of 2026.

2. Home price growth forecast cut to 1.2%

Home prices are now expected to rise just 1.2% in 2026, down from Realtor.com's earlier 2.2% forecast. Slower price growth, combined with lower mortgage costs and rising incomes, is expected to improve affordability for buyers despite mortgage rates remaining elevated.

Existing-home sales are projected to reach 4.10 million this year, up 1.0% from 2025, as more buyers and sellers return to the market. Sellers are also pricing homes more realistically upfront, helping transactions move forward with fewer price reductions.

Realtor.com also expects rents to fall 1.2% in 2026 as new apartment supply remains strong. However, inventory growth and new home construction are both expected to be weaker than previously forecast, which could limit housing supply in the months ahead.

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3. Catch up quick

🏠 Kelley Blue Book is now in the home valuation game. (KBBHomes)

💼 Berkshire’s Clayton Home Building Group is buying McGuinn Homes. (Mungo)

💸 Fredericksburg named Texas' least affordable place to buy a home. (MySA)

🤝 44% of realtors say they see a balanced market between buyer and seller. (CNBC)

😅 Waymo robotaxi delivers misbehaving teen passengers to police. (Yahoo)

4. San Antonio joins affordable luxury markets

San Antonio is one of just five major U.S. metros where the typical luxury home still costs less than $1 million, according to a Redfin analysis. The median luxury home sold for $968,344 in May, up 5.1% from a year earlier.

Nationwide, the typical luxury home sold for $1.37 million, a 4.7% annual increase. The number of major metros with sub-$1 million luxury homes has fallen from eight to five over the past year as high-end home prices continue to climb.

Texas also posted strong luxury price growth in other markets. Luxury home prices rose 9.4% in Fort Worth to $1.31 million, 9.0% in Austin to $1.81 million, while Houston reached $1.36 million and Dallas $1.60 million.

5. Home sales rebound as mortgage costs ease

Home sales rose 5.9% from a year ago in June, reversing May's decline, according to Zillow. Lower mortgage rates helped reduce the typical monthly mortgage payment by 2.5% year over year, while the typical home value increased a modest 1.1% to $372,057.

New listings also recovered, rising 3% annually after declining in May. However, active inventory was up just 0.9% from a year ago, marking the slowest growth in active inventory since December 2023.

In Texas, sales climbed across the state's largest metros despite softer home values. Austin posted the strongest sales growth at 16.3%, followed by San Antonio (14.0%), Dallas (9.4%), and Houston (6.0%). Home values, however, declined 5.2% in Austin, 2.5% in Dallas, 2.0% in Houston, and 1.8% in San Antonio.

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